2.1.5 Parameters Accuracy and Confidence Region



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2.1.5 Parameters Accuracy and Confidence Region

  Once the model parameter vector that minimizes the least-squares fit is found, the standard errors in the extracted parameter set can be estimated by computing:

 

where is the constant variance of the measurement errors. is an estimate of the parameter covariance matrix at the solution. The diagonal elements of this matrix are the variances (square of the standard deviation) of the fitted parameters. The off-diagonal terms are the covariances between the th and th parameter. The variance in measurements is usually approximated as:

where is the value of the objective function at the solution. Details on the statistical theory behind the derivation of (2.35) can be found in [93][84][7][6]. An important assumption in the derivation is that the mathematical model can be approximated by a linear function of the parameters near the minimum and that the measurement errors obey a normal distribution. For nonlinear models, failure of the first assumption leads to an unrealistically larger estimate of the errors [7].

The estimate of the standard deviation of the parameter values may be used   to calculate approximate confidence intervals for the parameters. For example, the 95% confidence region is:

Monte Carlo simulation techniques can also be used to estimate the errors in the model parameters [84].


Martin Stiftinger
Tue Aug 1 19:07:20 MET DST 1995